While about 20 hotels have closed or “consolidated” guests in Cancun (Oasis and Meliá Hotels) and the Riviera Maya (Iberostar +) so far (and that number is likely to rise but don’t ask which ones as that is another thread)and occupancy is at about 20% in Cancun, there are indicators that things could get better fairly soon. Depending on you the tourist of course!

1.- Anyone noticed the change in the tone of messages on boards this week? That is a key indicator of the, what I think will be a relatively quick return to normalcy. Not only the news media but the “folks” are saying, ok, enough already! And that’s big.

2.- The 2 big cruise lines say they will return to stopping at Cozumel and Majahual soon–probably within the next 2 weeks.

3.- Kids go back to school today and restaurants, discos and clubs return to more or less normal operations (50%) but I am sure they all “Wish you were here!”

4.- The Panamerican Health Association has said it’s ok to travel to tourist destinations in Mexico.

5.- The ruins have reopened.

OK, so this is just my *S.W.A.G. so take it for what it is worth.

(*S.W.A.G.=Scientific Wild Ass Guess as opposed to just a plain old W.A.G.!!)

1. The overall occupancy in Cancun is currently around 20%.

2.- I think/feel that by June, it can be up to 40%-50% with all restaurants, clubs and hotels reopened at 100% and all of the unemployed people back to work and

3.- that by July and August it can be pretty much normal around 70% and normal after that.

4.- Of course hotel chains with several hotels may choose to have 1 or more of their hotels stay closed until the demand returns enough to justify reopening.

5.- The bottleneck is going to be the airlines that have cut back drastically on service to the area and until they open up more flights more tourists can’t get to the Cancun area to fill up the hotels.

6.- Supply and demand folks!! Supply and demand! So until YOU the traveling public demand it, it ain’t gonna happen!

7.- The sun is warm and the drinks are cold. Wish you were here!!